AC Milan vs AS Roma by the numbers

We always post basic statistics, but for this blog we are going to dive one level deeper. AC Milan won the last game against Lecce with 4-1, in which they managed 62% possession and 17 goal attempts with 11 on target. Lecce got only ten attempts on goal with just one on target.

We always post basic statistics, but for this blog we are going to dive one level deeper. AC Milan won the last game against Lecce with 4-1, in which they managed 62% possession and 17 goal attempts with 11 on target. Lecce got only ten attempts on goal with just one on target. The four goals of Milan came from four different players. Looking further back though, the figures are less optimistic for Milan: an average of 1.33 goals per match over the last six fixtures. Their recent performances against Roma are also do not give a lot of reason to be positive: zero out two.

Roma enters this fixture after a close win against Sampdoria (2-1). The underlying data shows that the score could have been more like AC Milan vs Lecci with 24 shots on goal and 9 on target. Going further back, one thing becomes clear in the matches of AS Roma: they are anything but boring. With 20 goals in total in just six encounters (of which 7 were of the opposing team), it is safe to say that AS Roma is just another example that Italian football has long passed the stigma of being just defensive.

History of AC Milan vs As Roma fixtures

With 6 matches in recent history over the last 3 years, there is no clear favourite going into this match. With Roma winning three, Milan two and the last one ending in a draw. The average of goals per match for these games was 2.83, which makes it tempting to go over 2.5 as a bet for this encounter.

Take into account that Léo Duarte, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Mateo Musacchio will not be playing this game for AC Milan and Paulo Fonseca has to miss Pao Lopéz and Nicolo Zaniolo. With AC Milan missing more key players, but having the home advantage, we are leaning towards a draw for this game. Both teams are in desperate need of the points in this stage of the season to qualify for an European ticket. Does either one of them dare to risk losing?

The odds for a draw are actually really good, better than the odds for either Milan or Roma. Question is, do you dare to predict that these teams do not dare to lose?;)

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