Unlike a basketball field or a football field, a golf course is like a snowflake: there isn’t one exactly the same as another. Especially when it has rained the night before, or it hasn’t been raining for a long time at all. This is really important when you are looking to place winning golf bets and thus golf betting tips are hard to find. Different courses lend themselves to different skill sets. Putters will excel on fast greens, while those more accurate off the tee will look for tight fairways and penalising rough and the iron masters will not be afraid for courses guarded by obstacles.
PGA Tour Courses are often even designed to offer a particular challenge; to unveil one facet of the game. To win the tour though, a player will need to master all aspects and all courses of the game. To win as a gambler, you will need to understand all aspects of the game in similar fashion.
You need to take into account the weather, the course, the player, the statistics, the tournament, the form of the day and the hype. Golfers achieve different results in different tournaments. A world list ranking is just a single figure, but it’s made of a calculation of various tournament results. This can cloud your judgement. It’s important to look further than the ranking alone.
Golf Betting Tips: Avoid the Big Name Trap
Casual betters will easily fall for the big name trap. Someone that has his name high up the world ranking ladder or a golfer that has been the target of media hype. Golf is a game with so many variables, so much depth, that having a name doesn’t guarantee anything. Don’t bet on someone because other people are betting on him.
If winning a golf tournament is extremely difficult, winning two is even more difficult. Meaning that if someone has won last week, this will not predict the results for this weekend. Bookmakers often have the winners of last week at lower odds than the week before!
It’s hard to trust your own judgement when everybody tells you who to wager on. But the question you need to ask yourself is: do I want to be a better gambler? If so, you can only improve if you make a wager based on analytics. And learn from previous lost wagers by questioning what went wrong. Do you really trust so called experts? You shouldn’t. You should become one!
Outright winner bet.. On multiple golfers?
You know the saying ‘don’t put all eggs in one basket?’ Outright winner bet sounds like the easiest bet there is, but it is actually quite a long shot to predict the winner of a tournament. By placing multiple bets, you are decreasing the variance. Does this mean you should place a small bet on all players? No it doesn’t! Let’s give you an example of smart outright winner betting. We have a tournament of 64 players. The absolute favourite stands at 7.0, the following in line stands at 8.0, then 9.0 etc.
You always put €100 on the favourite and the runner up. And now you use your knowledge to choose two golfers that did well on the specific course or under specific conditions. If the favourite would win, you would still receive €300. If the number two would win, you will receive €400, but if one of your picks would win that are lower on the ladder, your profit skyrockets!
Look for Value
Successful betting has a lot to do with finding value. Bookmakers make mistakes, or to be more accurate: make wrong calculations. If a player has an estimated chance of winning a tournament by 10% and the odds are over 10x your bet, you have found value. Value is there usually temporary, since the algorithm tracks player’s bets and adjusts accordingly.
This means to find value, you have to the early adapter. This could mean early pre-match betting as well as anticipating to a game developing with live bets. Finding value is what sets an expert on golf apart from an expert on golf betting!
Golf Betting Strategy
As in all facets of gambling, improving your chances of winning is about lowering variance. It’s about spreading. It’s about a long term strategy over short term profit. When starting with a golf betting system, value not losing over winning. You could for instance replace your outright winner bets for Field Bets. Lower odds, but better chances of winning.
Betting also has to do with confidence. If you go for outright winner and lose three times, you might not want to bet at all. By choosing field betting, you will get some confidence in your predictions. As you notice you are right more often, you can switch to outright winner.
One-on-one golf bets
If you want to excel in one-on-one bets, you might want to keep an eye out for the Ryder Cup, which is all one-on-one matchups. It’s another way of reducing variance and a great way to get a feeling of the skill of players. If you do one-on-one bets for a longer time, you acquire knowledge for field betting and eventually you will be ready for solid outright winner predictions.
Presidents Cup Betting
The Presidents Cup shows how golf is a gentleman’s game that crosses all borders. With an ‘All Star’ team from the US with Tiger Woods as their captain and Ernie Els For the International Team. The prize money is distributed among the players and afterwards usually donated to charity. The USA has won all except for the 1998 edition. In 2003 the golf tournament ended up in a draw because it became too dark to play on the final hole with an equal amount of swings at either side.
Betting against the team from the United States as outright winner might not be the best idea, their roster features eight players who earned the most official FedExCup points from the 2017 BMW Championship to the 2019 BMW Championship. With points earned in the 2018-19 PGA Tour campaign counting double, along with four captain’s picks. Of course we also keep an eye out for the dp world tour championship and any European tour.
Golf terms and definitions
Golf is a complicated sport to outsiders. But once you have a feeling what the many terms mean, it is actually a very easy sport. If you are an aspiring golf better that has little affinity with the specific terms, we have created an essential list with all the important definitions for becoming a fortunate golf better:
- The Hole: the hole consists of the tee, fairway and green. Depending on the length of the green, a hole has to be completed in 3, 4, or 5 swings. The number of swings needed is called the par (Professional Average Result) of the hole. There are even holes of par 6, usually these are longer than 631 meter. The tee is the place where you start the hole with the first swing, the green is near the actual hole and the fairway is everything in between. Then there is also the rough on the sides of the fairway filled with bushes and trees. A place where golf players should spend little to no time ideally.
- Putt: It is assumed that a player needs 2 putts, so par 4 means that a player has 2 swings to make it to the green. With par 5 three swings etc.
- Handicap: an 18 hole course usually has a par of 70-72. If a player needs 20 more swings to complete the course, his handicap is set at 20. Thanks to the handicap system, a player with a higher handicap can still win from a player with a lower handicap. Professionals usually have no handicap, which is called scratch.
- Golfswing: a golf player can hit the ball with a golf swing. A player may have fourteen different golf clubs at any given time that each have their own functionality. Often carried by a caddy. There are putters, approaches, chips, pitch, bunker swings, punch swings and flops.
- Rules of Golf: these are stated in the Rules of Golf, approved by The Royal and Ancient Golf Club of St Andrews and the United States Golf Association
- Strokeplay and matchplay: with strokeplay it’s all about clearing a course in the least amount of strokes, taking into account the handicap of players. With matchplay the outcome of a course is determined hole by hole.
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