Is betting on the favourites smart or lazy? Discover when to back the favourite, when to avoid it, and how to bet with strategy in UK horse racing.
When it comes to horse racing, many punters find themselves regularly betting on the favourites. But is backing the favourite a clever long-term strategy or just the easy way out? In this article, we break down the pros and cons of betting on the favourites and whether this common approach actually pays off.
For a full overview of horse racing markets, visit our Horse Racing Betting Guide.
What Does ‘Favourite’ Mean in Horse Racing?
The favourite is the horse with the shortest odds in a given race. This usually reflects where the bulk of betting money is going. Bookmakers set the favourite based on recent form, trainer and jockey records, and market confidence. But while favourites win more often than outsiders, they don’t always offer the best value.
How Often Do Favourites Win?
On average, favourites win about 30–35% of flat races in the UK. In jumps racing, that figure drops slightly. While betting on the favourites may seem safe, a 1 in 3 strike rate still means plenty of losing bets. To be profitable, the odds need to offer enough return to cover your losses over time.
Should You Bet on the Favourite?
Betting on the favourites can be profitable if done with discipline. Look for:
- Strong course and distance form – Backing a favourite that’s won under similar conditions is more reliable.
- Good going match – Check that the favourite has performed well on today’s ground.
- Stable support – A favourite backed by a consistent trainer and jockey pairing holds more weight. See our beginner betting tips.
But avoid betting on the favourite just because it’s the market leader. Always review form figures, race conditions, and value.
When Favourites Are a Bad Bet
Sometimes the favourite is vulnerable. Reasons to think twice include:
- Unproven at the trip or going
- Lightly raced with little form data
- Sharp drift in betting odds
- Competitive field with strong challengers
Using a live odds vs SP comparison can reveal if market sentiment is turning against a favourite late in the day.
Alternative Strategies to Backing Favourites
If you’re cautious about betting on the favourites every time, consider other angles:
- Each-way betting – A safer route in competitive fields. Learn how each-way betting works.
- Form-based selections – Back horses with consistent form, even if they’re not favourites.
- Betting on course specialists – Look for runners with a “C” or “CD” next to their name on the racecard. See how to read racecards.
Is Betting on the Favourite Smart or Lazy?
It depends on how you do it. If you blindly back favourites, you’ll likely lose money in the long run. But if you use race knowledge, form analysis, and value judgement, betting on the favourites can form part of a successful strategy. Especially in low-grade races with clear standouts.
Final Thoughts
Betting on the favourites isn’t inherently wrong. It’s about when and how you do it. Assess each race on its own merits. A favourite in one race might be a banker, while in another, it’s a clear lay. The key is knowing the difference.
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