Is betting on the favourites smart or lazy? Discover when to back the favourite, when to avoid it, and how to bet with strategy in UK horse racing.
Backing the favourite in a horse race is one of the most common choices punters make — but is it the smartest? Or just the easiest? If you’re wondering whether this approach offers long-term profit or just short-term comfort, this article breaks it all down. We’ll explore the logic behind betting on the favourites, when it works, when it doesn’t, and how to build a stronger horse racing betting strategy.
New to betting on horse racing? Start with our full Horse Racing Betting Guide.
What Does ‘Favourite’ Really Mean in Horse Racing?
The favourite is the horse deemed most likely to win — usually the one with the shortest price. Bookmakers determine this by considering recent form, strike rate, jockey/trainer performance, market trends, and betting volumes. In a flat racing event with ten runners, for example, the favourite might be listed at odds of 2/1 or 3/1, making it the clear market leader.
This doesn’t always mean it’s the best bet — just the most backed. That’s why evaluating the favourite within the race context is key.
How Often Do Favourites Win?
Favourites win roughly 30–35% of flat racing events in the UK and slightly less in jumps racing. That’s a solid strike rate on paper, but not enough to guarantee profit — especially with short priced odds.
Let’s say you consistently back 2/1 favourites. You’ll need more than one win in three just to break even. And when false favourites appear — horses overhyped by market momentum — your returns can take a real hit.
📊 Starting Price vs True Value: Keep an eye on whether the starting price reflects the horse’s real chance of winning or if it’s just market noise.
Is Backing the Favourite Profitable?
It can be — but only under certain conditions. Here’s when it makes more sense to back the favourite:
- Consistent form figures: Recent top-three finishes show strong performance trends.
- Course and distance wins: Horses that have already proven themselves on the track and trip.
- Positive going record: The horse handles today’s ground well.
- High jockey/trainer win percentages: Some stables simply win more often.
Look for short priced favourites only when the form backs it up. Don’t follow the herd without assessing value — even the most fancied horse can disappoint.
When Should You Avoid the Favourite?
Here are some red flags that suggest the favourite might not be worth your money:
- First time over the distance: No previous performance at today’s trip.
- Jumping class or switching surface: Sudden moves from flat to jumps or turf to all-weather can disrupt rhythm.
- Drifting odds: A noticeable pre-race drift in the betting market may indicate stable uncertainty.
- Competitive field: Multiple horses with similar form could mean the favourite is priced too low.
In these cases, you’re better off considering bigger priced alternatives or building an each-way ticket instead.
Favourites vs Outsiders: What’s the Better Strategy?
Backing only favourites limits your potential return on investment. Outsiders — horses priced at 10/1, 14/1 or even higher — don’t win often, but when they do, the payouts are significant. That’s why many experienced punters balance their bets by combining short and bigger priced horses based on value, not just popularity.
If you’re serious about racing betting strategies, ask yourself this: does the favourite offer value? If not, walk away or lay it.
Each-Way Betting: A Safer Bet?
Not sure the favourite will win, but think it’ll run well? Each-way betting might be your best move. It’s especially useful in large fields where placing in the top 2–4 still gives a return. It cushions losses when your pick doesn’t quite get there.
📘 Each-Way Betting Explained has all the details if you’re unfamiliar with this option.
Alternative Betting Strategies
Here are a few more ways to diversify your bets instead of always picking the market favourite:
- Form-based selections: Analyse recent races for consistent horses offering value.
- Target course specialists: Horses with a ‘C’ or ‘CD’ next to their name often outperform their price.
- Watch the betting market: Compare live prices to starting price movement to detect hidden confidence.
💡 Learn about live odds vs SP to spot value drifts and late plunges.
False Favourites: What Are They?
A false favourite is a horse priced as the favourite despite offering little actual value. These often emerge due to market hype, trainer reputation, or high-profile jockeys — not the horse’s chances of winning. Be wary when:
- The horse’s recent form is patchy or against weak fields
- There’s been no course/distance success
- The betting shift has no logical backing
Avoiding false favourites can drastically improve your strike rate and ROI. Know when to trust the odds — and when to fade them.
Return on Investment: Betting Smarter, Not Harder
Instead of betting on every favourite, build a strategy that focuses on long term profit. This might mean using a level stake approach (flat bet amount on every race), targeting horses with strong strike rates, or creating a mixed portfolio of bets that balance short priced picks and bigger priced runners.
Long term profit comes not from guessing favourites — but by understanding them. Knowledge of starting price trends, stable form, and horse profiles will always beat blind betting.
Final Thoughts
Betting on the favourites is not lazy — unless you make it lazy. When backed by insight, form reading, and strategy, favourites can be a reliable tool in your betting arsenal. But don’t treat them as automatic winners.
Whether you’re placing a win bet, an each-way punt, or fading a favourite completely, make sure your strategy is rooted in value, not assumption.
👉 Want to give yourself an edge before betting? Head to our Promotions Page to profit from the latest sports betting offers.
